When $SPY 20 day range goes below 2%

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Here is an interesting article which analyzes how the SPY performs after it consolidates in a tight (under 2%) trading range for more than 20 sessions:

Summary: ( 92% ) times $SPY closed higher over the next 5 trading day at some close , when $SPY 20 trading day’s range contracts below 2% , since Mar 1993 , 

All data as of Wed’s (1/22/14’s) close:

With $SPY 20 day range as in (20 day intra high – 20 day intra low ) / (Average (20 day intra high ,20 day intra low ) printing a value of 1.97% -> (184.94-181.34)*100/(184.94+181.34)/2

below the previous  instances of $SPY 20 day rage less than 2% , since Mar 1993 , and the next 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 trading days ..
Exit # Wins % Wins Avg% Med% Avg Win % Avg Loss % Pay Off Max Loss %
t+1 13 8 61.5 0.16 0.16 0.47 -0.34 1.39 -1.30
t+2 13 9 69.2 0.35 0.56 0.70 -0.45 1.57 -1.31
t+3 13 10 76.9 0.48 0.60 0.80 -0.60 1.34 -1.32
t+4 13 11 84.6 0.55 0.52 0.76 -0.65 1.18 -1.10
t+5 13 11 84.6 0.56 0.46 0.79 -0.72 1.10 -1.10
t+10 13 10 76.9 1.13 1.13 1.65 -0.60 2.75 -1.72
t+20 13 12 92.3 1.98 1.87 2.16 -0.13 16.62 -0.13
Swing High 13 12 92.3 0.33 0.44 0.45 -1.10 0.41 -1.10

that Swing High, column , is made with the assumption that, one goes long at close and exits at first higher close than current close in the next five trading days , or exit at the end of the fifth trading day with loss

12/13  ( 92% ) times $SPY closed higher over the next 5 trading day at some close , when $SPY 20 trading day’s range contracts below 2% , since Mar 1993 , 

Whilst the sample size is too low , suggests an upside in the next trading days !!

here are the $SPY 20 day rage less than 2% , since Mar 1993  and the next 1/2/3/4/5/10/20 trading returns ,

Date 20 Day Range % t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+10 t+20
22-Jan-14 1.97 ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
11-Jan-07 1.96 0.76 0.56 0.6 0.26 0.46 -0.02 1.25
10-Jan-07 1.96 0.44 1.2 1.01 1.05 0.7 0.51 2.46
15-Aug-05 1.97 -1.3 -1.31 -1.32 -1.1 -1.1 -1.72 -0.13
23-Dec-93 1.87 0.52 0.71 0.58 0.18 -0.34 0.58 1.35
22-Dec-93 1.81 -0.06 0.46 0.65 0.52 0.12 -0.06 1.48
21-Dec-93 1.94 0.68 0.62 1.14 1.33 1.21 0.62 1.89
13-Aug-93 1.93 0.55 0.9 1.45 1.45 1.52 2.48 2.9
12-Aug-93 1.93 0.16 0.71 1.07 1.61 1.61 2.71 3
11-Aug-93 1.93 -0.29 -0.13 0.42 0.77 1.32 2.35 1.8
10-Aug-93 1.93 0 -0.29 -0.13 0.42 0.77 2.29 1.61
09-Aug-93 1.93 -0.06 -0.06 -0.35 -0.19 0.35 1.13 1.87
06-Aug-93 1.67 0.55 0.49 0.49 0.19 0.36 1.88 3.14
05-Aug-93 1.67 0.13 0.68 0.62 0.62 0.32 1.94 3.18
02-Feb-93 1.43 1.06 1.5 1.43 1.43 0.73 -2.03 1.8
01-Feb-93 1.14 0.2 1.27 1.7 1.63 1.63 -1.77 1.57
avg 0.22 0.49 0.62 0.68 0.64 0.73 1.94
med 0.2 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.7 0.62 1.8
%wins 67 73 80 87 87 67 93

highlighted in the red is the only instance ( 15th Aug 2005) , when $SPY is not able to produce a higher close in the next five days ( a loss of 1.1% , and failed to close higher in the next 20 days ( a loss of -0.13% )

Source: Here

 

 

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