Reuters Quote: Q1 Gold Recap

15:55 31Mar11 -TECHNICALS-Gold gaining momentum for breakout toward $1,500


* Gold posts smallest rise in 10 quarters

* Bullion gaining momentum; breakout above $1,450 eyed

* Breach of double-top resistance could see record $1,500


By Frank Tang

NEW YORK, March 31 (Reuters) – Even as gold notches one of

the smallest quarterly gains in 10 quarters, the metal is

expected to break out of its recent base.


Gold <XAU=> prices ended the first quarter up just over 1

percent at around $1,440 an ounce, underpinned by a combination

of loose monetary policies, euro zone debt fears and political

unrest across the Middle East.



However, it was also one of bullion’s smallest gains since

the third quarter of 2008, before the financial crisis took

hold. A relatively smooth global economic recovery has prompted

the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve to mull over

liquidity tightening .


The price of gold has been largely range-bound in the past

six months between $1,440 and $1,320 an ounce, as the metal

showed signs of plateauing after a 30 percent gain last year.

Bullion hit a record $1,447.40 an ounce on March 24.



“Gold has been building up a large space to consolidate

recent gains from the latter half of 2010,” said Adam Sarhan,

CEO of New York-based Sarhan Capital.

“The market is acting like a coil. As more and more

pressure is building up, gold will most likely break out and

close above its current base at $1,450 an ounce,” he said.

Sarhan said higher prices would follow as long as gold held

above $1,400 an ounce and above the key 50-day and 200-day

moving averages.


“On the downside though, if the 50-day moving average is

broken, and you see gold start falling hard, then all bullish

bets are off,” he said.


Rick Bensignor, chief market analyst of Dahlman Rose, said

that spot gold’s short-term outlook had improved after prices

held support in the $1,417 to $1,414 area in each of the past

four days.

Multiple higher closes above a double-top resistance at

$1,445 an ounce should help propel prices above a record $1,500

an ounce, Bensignor said.



(Editing by Walter Bagley)

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