How Wild Is October for S&P 500 Index?

October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks – Mark Twain

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How Wild Is October for S&P 500 Index ?

Lets define wildness , by looking at the monthly range , calculated as ( high-low)*100/average(high:low) ,  nothing but range% of the month .

Below the table with average range % for each month since 1950 , No wonder October ranks first

$SPX monthly average range% since 1950

let’s do , further research , by looking at each calendar year, and see which month posted the highest monthly range for that year .

$SPX highest mothly range% for each year

#FYI- the highest monthly range for the year 2013 , as of now stands at 6.48% , recorded in the May-2013.

below the table with the details of each month and the number of times it recorded the highest monthly range for a year.

Month # high range for the year
Jan 6
Feb 2
Mar 7
Apr 2
May 8
Jun 2
Jul 3
Aug 6
Sep 6
Oct 12
Nov 6
Dec 2

That October recorded the highest monthly average for 12 year out of the last 62 years , tells how wild October was in the past .

Below the details October Months, when it recorded the highest monthly range of the year

Date Open High Low Close Range % Change %
Oct-11 1131.21 1292.66 1074.77 1253.3 18.41 10.77
Oct-08 1164.17 1167.03 839.8 968.75 32.61 -16.94
Oct-99 1282.71 1373.17 1233.7 1362.93 10.70 6.25
Oct-98 1017.01 1103.78 923.32 1098.67 17.80 8.03
Oct-97 947.28 983.12 855.27 914.62 13.91 -3.45
Oct-92 417.8 421.16 396.8 418.68 5.96 0.21
Oct-89 349.15 360.44 327.12 340.36 9.69 -2.52
Oct-87 321.83 328.94 216.46 251.79 41.25 -21.76
Oct-79 109.19 112.16 99.06 101.82 12.40 -6.86
Oct-78 102.54 106.23 91.65 93.15 14.74 -9.16
Oct-74 63.54 75.9 60.96 73.9 21.83 16.30
Oct-57 42.76 43.14 38.98 41.06 10.13 -3.21

Source: PastStat

ps: Oct-78, and Oct-79 had #shutdown

pps:  just because October might print the highest range of the year doesn’t mean it could go down , there are two possibilities .

Oct-87 ( -21.76%) vs Oct-74 ( 16.3%)

or

Oct-08(- 16.94%)  vs Oct-11 ( 10.77%)

 

 

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