Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks and other risk assets were mixed on Tuesday after the latest round of mixed economic data was released. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. Since then, stocks have been enjoying a very strong uptrend. The benchmark S&P 500 paused near its 2011 high (~1370) before moving higher and that level should now become support. The next level of support would be the 50 DMA line, then a deeper 5-9% pullback. It is important to note that the bulls remain in control of this market as long as the benchmark S&P 500 stays above its 50 DMA line.
Economic Data Mixed:
Stocks ended lower on Tuesday as investors digested the latest round of mixed economic data. The S&P Case/Shiller index was unchanged which beat the -0.2% decline the Street had expected. The report showed that prices for single-family homes were unchanged in January which bodes well for the ongoing recovery in the housing market. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, prices fell by -0.8%. A separate report showed that consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in March to 70.2, from an upwardly revised 71.6 in February. This just missed the Street’s 70.3 expectation.
Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally
After a brief pullback most risk assets (mainly stocks and a slew of commodities) are back in “rally-mode” evidenced by the strong rally we have seen in recent days. This shallow pullback is considered healthy and shows how strong the bulls are at this point. However, if sellers show up and support is breached then the bears will have regained control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!
Coming Up This Week:
TUESDAY: S&P Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence, 2-yr note auction, Fed’s Rosengren speaks; Earnings from Lennar, Walgreen
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, durable goods orders, oil inventories, 5-yr note auction, Fed’s Bullard speaks, FDA discusses obesity drugs
THURSDAY: GDP, jobless claims, corporate profits, Fed’s Plosser speaks, 7-yr note auction, farm prices, Fed’s Lacker speaks; Earnings from Best Buy, Research In Motion
FRIDAY: Personal income & outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment, Stringer’s last day as Sony CEO