1987 vs 2013: A Quick Look
It is important to note that Jan-Aug 2013 looks eerily similar to Jan-Aug of 1987. We are not there yet but something we are watching closely. Here are a few facts for your review: In 1987, the S&P 500 soared over 30% from Jan-Aug. So far, in 2013, it vaulted 20% during that period. In 1987, the S&P 500 topped out at the end of August then broke below its 50 DMA line in September. Then support was broken on Oct 14, 1987 when it took out its recent lows – just above 308 (& no that is not a typo!). Then it broke and closed below its 200 DMA line on October 15th. The following Monday was “Black Monday” where the S&P 500 lost an incredible -15% in one day! We are not sure how the rest of 2013 plays out but we will be on the look out for further weakness.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY’S ACTION: STOCKS Fall ON TAPER TALK
THURSDAY & FRIDAY’S ACTION: Rates Spike; Stocks Fall
MARKET OUTLOOK: Bears Are Getting Stronger
The market is getting weaker now that several of the major averages closed below their respective 50 DMA lines and interest rate sensitive areas of the market are getting hammered. Defensive is paramount until the major averages regain their 50 dma lines. Our goal is to remain in sync with the broader trend of the market (up or down) and not get caught up with the minutiae of changing labels on the market status very often. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.