Monday, March 17, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks extended their winning streak as the bulls remained in clear control of this market. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. Since then, stocks have been enjoying a very strong uptrend. The benchmark S&P 500 paused near its 2011 high (~1370) before moving higher. At this point, it would be perfectly normal and healthy to see a 5-9% pullback at any point to give the bulls a chance to consolidate the recent gain. That would bring the S&P 500 down to 1320-1260. It is important to note that the bulls remain in control of this market as long as the benchmark S&P 500 stays above its 50 DMA line.
Housing Sentiment Holds Steady, Apple Initiates Dividend and Share-buy Back
Before Monday’s open, stocks were mixed overseas as investors digested last week’s strong rally. In the U.S., stocks were relatively quiet on Monday as investors digested last week’s strong move and the latest round of housing data was released. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index held steady at 28 in March. The index is still below the boom/bust level of 50 which separates positive and negative sentiment but is now holding at its highest level since June 2007. In other news, AAPL said it will offer a $2.65 dividend and offer a share buy back to help utilize its massive pile of cash.
Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally
After a very shallow pullback the majority of risk assets (Stocks, FX, and commodities) have began to rally. So far this action is considered healthy for the risk on trade. However, if sellers show up and support is breached then the bears will have regained control of this market (still a long ways off). As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!