Monday, March 12, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks were quiet on Monday after China said exports slowed which bodes poorly for the ongoing economic recovery. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. Since then, stocks have been enjoying a very strong uptrend. However, the benchmark S&P 500 encountered resistance above its 2011 high (~1370) and is currently pulling back to consolidate its recent move. It would be perfectly normal and healthy to see a 5-9% pullback before a new leg higher begins. That would bring the S&P 500 down to 1310-1240. Until then, the bulls remain in control of this market as long as the benchmark S&P 500 stays above its 50 DMA line.
Exports Slow In China, All Eyes On FOMC Meeting:
Before Monday’s open, China said its trade balance unexpectedly slowed last month. China said its trade balance slid $31.5 billion into the red last month as imports trumped exports. This was the country’s largest trade deficit in at least a decade and cast doubts about the already fragile global recovery. Import growth surged +39.6% on the year in February which easily topped the Street’s +27% forecast. Meanwhile, exports grew by +18.4% which was just more than half of the Street’s expectation and hit a six month high. Investors are waiting Tuesday’s FOMC meeting to see if there are any clues regarding a possible QE 3.
Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally
Risk assets (stocks, FX, and commodities) have finally began to pullback which is considered normal as long as this pullback is mild and stops at logical levels of support (i.e. prior chart highs, 50 DMA line, etc). However, if the selling intensifies and support is breached then the bears will have regained control of this market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!